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Cake day: October 6th, 2023

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  • Again, the argument I’m trying to make is that, by the time one can settle Mars without supplies from Earth

    Well, that’s not exactly the goal. No nation is really self-sufficient in modern society. Everyone engages in trade. So the question is really, when will a space colony become profitable or maintainable? And that’s trickier to answer, because it isn’t “not for hundreds of years”, but it also isn’t now, it’s somewhere in between.

    Cheaper access to space would change the equation immensely. Being cheaper to resupply would mean the colony wouldn’t have to be as profitable to be sustainable. In-situ resource utilisation (using water found off of earth for drinking, oxygen and fuel) will also make an enormous difference as it would reduce the amount of supplies needed from earth. (This is incidentally one of the main goals of NASA’s Artemis program, to figure out how to utilize water resources on the moon)

    It was the same situation when Europeans settled the Americas, at first it was just a money suck. Entire colonies were lost, lots of people died, they weren’t really prepared. But then they started to figure out what crops worked there, how to survive harsh winters, etc. Once they figured out how to make the most of this new land, they thrived. Unfortunately, the way they treated the locals was pretty horrific. Fortunately, we’re pretty certain there aren’t any locals on the moon or Mars.

    Truth be told, I think a Mars colony won’t happen for quite some time, but I believe a moon colony will certainly happen before 2100. And if we’re lucky, maybe since orbital colonies. That’s where the future really lies, orbital colonies.


  • The tech you’d need to make living on Mars independent of Earth, like consciousness uploading, self sufficient friendly AI, extensive human/plant bioengineering, terraforming… Well, they’re better at solving our problems on Earth anyway.

    That sounds like an argument for a Mars colony, not against it.

    Not that I think continuousness uploading or AI have anything to do with a Mars colony… Even terraforming is totally unnecessary.

    Honestly, I don’t think Mars is a great candidate for a space colony, though probably not for the same reasons you’re thinking. But I think it is in fact vital that we start colonizing space soon, and I think the technologies developed in pursuit of that goal will absolutely aid us here on earth.